Where the market is wrong on Manchester United v Manchester City
Manchester United meet Manchester City in the Premier League regular season - 4 at Old Trafford, Manchester.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1684, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Manchester City, 75% against 65%. Attacking output favors Manchester City on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.9 per match.
Manchester United arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 9 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 5-2 v Ipswich, L 0-2 @ Hull City, L 2-4 v AC Milan, D 1-1 v Leeds.
Manchester City are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 12 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 @ Crystal Palace, W 2-1 v Bournemouth, L 0-3 @ Arsenal, W 3-1 v Atletico Madrid.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Manchester United 2-0 Manchester City.
The market prices MAN at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
