Where the market is wrong on Coventry v Brighton
Coventry meet Brighton in the Premier League regular season - 4 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry.
The baseline ratings are close, 1684 to 1650, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 75% against 68%. Attacking output favors Coventry on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.9 per match.
Coventry arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Hull City, W 4-2 @ Plymouth, L 0-3 @ Arsenal, W 2-0 v Monaco.
Brighton are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 3-4 @ Chelsea, W 4-0 v Tromso, W 4-0 v Aston Villa, D 0-0 @ Tromso.
Brighton hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2018: Brighton 3-1 Coventry.
The market prices COV at 22% implied. Our number sits apart on Coventry: a 16.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
