Where the market is wrong on Liverpool v Nottingham Forest
Liverpool meet Nottingham Forest in the Premier League regular season - 2 at Anfield, Liverpool.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Nottingham Forest, 55% against 45%. Attacking output favors Liverpool on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.
Liverpool arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Nottingham Forest, D 2-2 @ Newcastle, D 0-0 v Como, L 2-3 v Monaco.
Nottingham Forest are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Liverpool, L 0-2 v Leeds, L 0-1 v Leeds, W 2-0 v Stade Brestois 29.
Liverpool hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest.
The market prices LIV at 65% implied. Our number sits apart on Nottingham Forest: a 25.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
