Where the market is wrong on Newcastle v Liverpool
Newcastle meet Liverpool in the Premier League regular season - 1 at St James' Park, Newcastle.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 43%. Attacking output favors Liverpool on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 71%, over 2.5 goals around 72%. Draw no bet leans Liverpool at 52%; double chance reads Newcastle or draw 63%, Liverpool or draw 65%.
Newcastle arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v West Brom, D 2-2 v Liverpool, D 1-1 v Strasbourg, L 1-2 v Bayer Leverkusen.
Liverpool are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Newcastle, D 0-0 v Como, L 2-3 v Monaco, L 2-4 v Leeds.
Liverpool hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool.
The market prices NEW at 24% implied. Our number sits apart on Newcastle: a 10.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
