Anderlecht v Hammarby FF

Anderlecht meet Hammarby FF in the UEFA Europa League 2nd qualifying round at Lotto Park, Anderlecht. The model makes Hammarby FF the most likely outcome at 49%, with the full read 25% AND, 26% draw, 49% HAM.

The baseline ratings are close, 1468 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Hammarby FF, 60% against 45%. Attacking output favors Hammarby FF on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 69%, over 2.5 goals around 83%. Draw no bet leans Hammarby FF at 67%; double chance reads Anderlecht or draw 51%, Hammarby FF or draw 75%.

Anderlecht arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Hammarby FF, W 1-0 @ AZ Alkmaar, W 3-2 v NEC Nijmegen, W 2-1 v Dunkerque.

Hammarby FF are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ IF Brommapojkarna, D 1-1 v Anderlecht, W 4-0 v Degerfors IF, W 2-0 v Kalmar FF.

Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Hammarby FF 1-1 Anderlecht.

The market prices AND at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Hammarby FF: a 17.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 85 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.