FK Tobol Kostanay v Panevėžys

FK Tobol Kostanay meet Panevėžys in the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd qualifying round at Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay. The model makes FK Tobol Kostanay the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 43% FK , 30% draw, 27% PAN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1458, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans FK Tobol Kostanay, 53% against 42%. Attacking output favors FK Tobol Kostanay on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans FK Tobol Kostanay at 61%; double chance reads FK Tobol Kostanay or draw 73%, Panevėžys or draw 57%.

FK Tobol Kostanay arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Atyrau, D 1-1 @ Panevėžys, D 1-1 @ Kyzyl-Zhar, W 3-1 v Okzhetpes.

Panevėžys are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v FK Tobol Kostanay, L 0-3 @ Kauno Žalgiris, D 1-1 v Hegelmann Litauen, L 1-2 v Suduva Marijampole.

Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Panevėžys 1-1 FK Tobol Kostanay.

The market prices FK at 69% implied. Our number sits apart on Panevėžys: a 15.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.