FK Jablonec v NK Varazdin

FK Jablonec meet NK Varazdin in the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd qualifying round at Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou. The model makes NK Varazdin the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 26% FK , 29% draw, 45% NK .

NK Varazdin rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1673 to 1535. Recent form leans NK Varazdin, 73% against 53%. Attacking output favors NK Varazdin on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans NK Varazdin at 63%; double chance reads FK Jablonec or draw 55%, NK Varazdin or draw 74%.

FK Jablonec arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Sigma Olomouc, L 2-3 @ NK Varazdin, W 1-0 v Metalist 1925 Kharkiv, W 1-0 v VfL Osnabrück.

NK Varazdin are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v FK Jablonec, W 2-0 v Beltinci, W 3-1 v Kustosija, W 3-1 @ Bihor Oradea.

NK Varazdin hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: NK Varazdin 3-2 FK Jablonec.

The market prices FK at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on NK Varazdin: a 25.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.