Dukagjini v FC Lugano

Dukagjini meet FC Lugano in the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd qualifying round. The model makes FC Lugano the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 31% DUK, 31% draw, 38% FC .

The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans FC Lugano, 65% against 53%. Attacking output favors Dukagjini on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 44%. Draw no bet leans FC Lugano at 55%; double chance reads Dukagjini or draw 62%, FC Lugano or draw 69%.

Dukagjini arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ FC Lugano, L 0-1 @ Beitar Jerusalem, D 3-3 @ Lokomotiv Sofia, W 1-0 v Ballkani.

FC Lugano are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v FC Vaduz, W 1-0 v Dukagjini, L 1-2 v FC Vaduz, W 1-0 @ 1. FC Heidenheim.

FC Lugano hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FC Lugano 1-0 Dukagjini.

The market prices DUK at 18% implied. Our number sits apart on Dukagjini: a 12.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.