Where the market is wrong on Valur Reykjavik v Zrinjski
Valur Reykjavik meet Zrinjski in the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd qualifying round at Hlídarendi Reykjavik, Reykjavik. The model makes Zrinjski the most likely outcome at 55%, with the full read 19% VAL, 26% draw, 55% ZRI.
Zrinjski rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1661 to 1456. Recent form leans Zrinjski, 73% against 39%. Attacking output favors Zrinjski on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 69%. Draw no bet leans Zrinjski at 74%; double chance reads Valur Reykjavik or draw 45%, Zrinjski or draw 81%.
Valur Reykjavik arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Zrinjski, L 2-3 v Fram Reykjavik, L 0-2 @ FH hafnarfjordur, L 0-1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar.
Zrinjski are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 13 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Valur Reykjavik, W 3-1 v Posušje, W 6-0 v Arsenal Tivat, W 2-0 @ Siroki Brijeg.
The market prices VAL at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on Zrinjski: a 15.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 87 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
