Heart Of Midlothian v Sturm Graz: the model read
Heart Of Midlothian meet Sturm Graz in the UEFA Champions League 2nd qualifying round at Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh. The model makes Sturm Graz the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 28% HEA, 29% draw, 43% STU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1627 to 1661, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sturm Graz, 75% against 65%. Attacking output favors Sturm Graz on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans Sturm Graz at 61%; double chance reads Heart Of Midlothian or draw 57%, Sturm Graz or draw 72%.
Heart Of Midlothian arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Raith Rovers, L 0-4 @ Sturm Graz, W 2-1 v Rayo Vallecano, W 2-1 @ Arbroath.
Sturm Graz are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 17 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Seekirchen, W 4-0 v Heart Of Midlothian, W 1-0 v Pogon Szczecin, W 5-1 v Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
Sturm Graz hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sturm Graz 4-0 Heart Of Midlothian.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
