Dinamo Zagreb v FC Thun

Dinamo Zagreb meet FC Thun in the UEFA Champions League 2nd qualifying round at Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb. The model makes Dinamo Zagreb the most likely outcome at 56%, with the full read 56% DIN, 24% draw, 20% FC .

Dinamo Zagreb rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1788 to 1546. Recent form leans Dinamo Zagreb, 90% against 55%. Attacking output favors Dinamo Zagreb on expected goals, 3.2 to 2.0 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 65%, over 2.5 goals around 88%. Draw no bet leans Dinamo Zagreb at 73%; double chance reads Dinamo Zagreb or draw 80%, FC Thun or draw 44%.

Dinamo Zagreb arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 17 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ FC Thun, D 0-0 v LNZ Cherkasy, W 4-2 v Koper, W 9-0 @ Brinje-Grosuplje.

FC Thun are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 12 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ FC Luzern, D 1-1 v Dinamo Zagreb, L 1-2 v Waldhof Mannheim, D 1-1 v SV Elversberg.

Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: FC Thun 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb.

The market prices DIN at 68% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Thun: a 8.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.