Where the market is wrong on Hegelmann II v Minija
Hegelmann II meet Minija in the 1 Lyga regular season - 18. The model makes Minija the most likely outcome at 66%, with the full read 13% HEG, 21% draw, 66% MIN.
Minija rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1799 to 1400. Recent form leans Minija, 90% against 25%. Attacking output favors Minija on expected goals, 3.0 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 31%, over 2.5 goals around 81%. Draw no bet leans Minija at 83%; double chance reads Hegelmann II or draw 34%, Minija or draw 87%.
Hegelmann II arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Atmosfera, L 0-2 v Žalgiris II, L 1-3 @ Žalgiris II, W 2-1 v Jonava.
Minija are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 9 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Jonava, W 1-0 @ Garliava, W 2-1 v Panevėžys, W 1-0 @ Atmosfera.
Minija hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Minija 3-0 Hegelmann II.
The market prices HEG at 6% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 9.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 60 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
