Where the market is wrong on Be1 NFA v Jonava
Be1 NFA meet Jonava in the 1 Lyga regular season - 18. The model makes Be1 NFA the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% BE1, 29% draw, 34% JON.
Be1 NFA rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1468. Recent form leans Be1 NFA, 60% against 45%. Attacking output favors Jonava on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 67%, over 2.5 goals around 67%. Draw no bet leans Be1 NFA at 52%; double chance reads Be1 NFA or draw 66%, Jonava or draw 63%.
Be1 NFA arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ BFA, W 1-0 @ Atmosfera, W 2-1 v Žalgiris II, L 0-1 @ Babrungas.
Jonava are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Garliava, L 1-2 @ Minija, L 1-2 @ Hegelmann II, W 2-1 @ Žalgiris II.
Be1 NFA hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Jonava 2-2 Be1 NFA.
The market prices BE1 at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on Jonava: a 11.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output