Where the market is wrong on Žalgiris II v Minija
Žalgiris II meet Minija in the 1 Lyga regular season - 17. The model makes Minija the most likely outcome at 61%, with the full read 16% ŽAL, 22% draw, 61% MIN.
Minija rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1799 to 1477. Recent form leans Minija, 90% against 45%. Attacking output favors Minija on expected goals, 3.0 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 84%. Draw no bet leans Minija at 79%; double chance reads Žalgiris II or draw 39%, Minija or draw 84%.
Žalgiris II arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Hegelmann II, W 3-1 v Hegelmann II, L 1-2 @ Be1 NFA, L 1-2 v Jonava.
Minija are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 9 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Jonava, W 1-0 @ Garliava, W 2-1 v Panevėžys, W 1-0 @ Atmosfera.
Minija hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Minija 4-0 Žalgiris II.
The market prices ŽAL at 12% implied. Our number sits apart on Žalgiris II: a 4.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
