BFA v Be1 NFA: the model read
BFA meet Be1 NFA in the 1 Lyga regular season - 17. The model makes Be1 NFA the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 34% BFA, 29% draw, 36% BE1.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 60%. Attacking output favors BFA on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 65%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans Be1 NFA at 52%; double chance reads BFA or draw 64%, Be1 NFA or draw 66%.
BFA arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 11 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Be1 NFA, W 4-1 @ Ekranas, W 3-0 v Ekranas, W 1-0 @ Kauno Žalgiris II.
Be1 NFA are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ BFA, W 1-0 @ Atmosfera, W 2-1 v Žalgiris II, L 0-1 @ Babrungas.
The market prices BFA at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 2.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
