Where the market is wrong on V-varen Nagasaki v FC Tokyo
V-varen Nagasaki meet FC Tokyo in the J1 League regular season - 4 at Peace Stadium, Nagasaki.
FC Tokyo rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1454. Recent form leans FC Tokyo, 63% against 40%. Attacking output favors FC Tokyo on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.1 per match.
V-varen Nagasaki arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v FC Tokyo, W 3-2 v Ehime FC, L 2-4 @ Kashiwa Reysol, L 0-1 @ Fagiano Okayama.
FC Tokyo are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 14 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ V-varen Nagasaki, W 6-0 v Parceiro Nagano, W 2-0 v JEF United Chiba, D 2-2 @ Vissel Kobe.
The market prices V-V at 17% implied. Our number sits apart on V-varen Nagasaki: a 7.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
