Derry City v CSKA Sofia: the model read
Derry City meet CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 1st qualifying round at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry. The model makes CSKA Sofia the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 33% DER, 32% draw, 36% CSK.
CSKA Sofia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1598 to 1454. Recent form leans CSKA Sofia, 64% against 45%. Attacking output favors Derry City on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 40%. Draw no bet leans CSKA Sofia at 52%; double chance reads Derry City or draw 64%, CSKA Sofia or draw 67%.
Derry City arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ HNK Rijeka, W 3-0 v Tolka Rovers, L 1-2 v CSKA Sofia, L 2-3 @ CSKA Sofia.
CSKA Sofia are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Botev Plovdiv, D 0-0 @ Qarabag, D 0-0 @ Slavia Sofia, W 2-1 @ Derry City.
CSKA Sofia hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Derry City 1-2 CSKA Sofia.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
