AZ Alkmaar v Willem II: the model read
AZ Alkmaar meet Willem II in the Eredivisie regular season - 6 at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar. The model makes Willem II the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 31% AZ , 30% draw, 39% WIL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1565 to 1662, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Willem II, 71% against 61%. Attacking output favors AZ Alkmaar on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans Willem II at 56%; double chance reads AZ Alkmaar or draw 61%, Willem II or draw 69%.
AZ Alkmaar arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Genk, D 1-1 @ Zulte Waregem, L 0-1 v Anderlecht, W 2-1 v Almere City FC.
Willem II are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v FC Eindhoven, L 1-2 v Quick Boys, W 2-1 @ FC Volendam, L 1-2 v FC Volendam.
AZ Alkmaar hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Willem II 0-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
