Where the market is wrong on Willem II v Heerenveen
Willem II meet Heerenveen in the Eredivisie regular season - 4 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg.
The baseline ratings are close, 1625 to 1598, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 66% against 64%. Attacking output favors Heerenveen on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.4 per match.
Willem II arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Excelsior, D 2-2 v Heerenveen, L 1-4 v NEC Nijmegen, L 1-4 @ GO Ahead Eagles.
Heerenveen are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Willem II, L 0-2 v PEC Zwolle, D 2-2 @ Ajax, W 1-0 v Twente.
Heerenveen hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Willem II 2-2 Heerenveen.
The market prices WIL at 24% implied. Our number sits apart on Willem II: a 9.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
