Where the market is wrong on Excelsior v Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior meet Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie regular season - 4 at Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam.
Excelsior rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1569 to 1400. Recent form leans Excelsior, 57% against 35%. Attacking output favors Excelsior on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.3 per match.
Excelsior arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 17 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Sparta Rotterdam, L 1-2 v PSV Eindhoven, W 4-0 @ Cambuur, W 5-1 @ De Graafschap.
Sparta Rotterdam are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Excelsior, D 3-3 v Utrecht, W 3-1 @ Telstar, L 0-1 v Feyenoord.
Sparta Rotterdam hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Excelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
The market prices EXC at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Excelsior: a 5.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 67 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
