Where the market is wrong on Emmen v De Graafschap
Emmen meet De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 6 at De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Emmen, 48% against 37%. Attacking output favors De Graafschap on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.9 per match.
Emmen arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 15 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v De Graafschap, W 5-3 v FC Volendam, L 0-4 @ VVV Venlo, W 3-1 v Jong AZ.
De Graafschap are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 6 scored and 17 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Emmen, L 0-5 @ Heracles, L 1-4 v Almere City FC, L 1-2 @ VVV Venlo.
Emmen hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Emmen 1-2 De Graafschap.
The market prices EMM at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on De Graafschap: a 11.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
