Slavia Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia

Slavia Sofia meet Lokomotiv Sofia in the First League regular season - 3 at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia. The model makes Slavia Sofia the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% SLA, 30% draw, 33% LOK.

The baseline ratings are close, 1509 to 1468, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 47%. Attacking output favors Slavia Sofia on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 62%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans Slavia Sofia at 53%; double chance reads Slavia Sofia or draw 67%, Lokomotiv Sofia or draw 63%.

Slavia Sofia arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 13 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Arda Kardzhali, D 0-0 v CSKA Sofia, W 7-2 v Montana, W 3-2 v Slatina.

Lokomotiv Sofia are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Levski Sofia, D 1-1 @ Botev Plovdiv, D 0-0 v Teuta Durrës, D 3-3 v Dukagjini.

Slavia Sofia hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Lokomotiv Sofia 2-0 Slavia Sofia.

The market prices SLA at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on Slavia Sofia: a 5.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.