Where the market is wrong on Monterrey v Atletico San Luis
Monterrey meet Atletico San Luis in the Liga MX apertura - 6 at Estadio BBVA, Monterrey.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 48%. Attacking output favors Monterrey on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 73%, over 2.5 goals around 74%. Draw no bet leans Monterrey at 51%; double chance reads Monterrey or draw 65%, Atletico San Luis or draw 64%.
Monterrey arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Atletico San Luis, W 2-1 v Chicago Fire, L 0-2 @ Leon, W 6-1 v FC Juarez.
Atletico San Luis are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Monterrey, D 1-1 v CF Pachuca, L 0-3 @ Club America, D 2-2 @ Orlando City SC.
Atletico San Luis hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Monterrey 1-3 Atletico San Luis.
The market prices MON at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on Atletico San Luis: a 15.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
