Puebla v Guadalajara Chivas: the model read
Puebla meet Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX apertura - 3. The model makes Guadalajara Chivas the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 26% PUE, 29% draw, 45% GUA.
Guadalajara Chivas rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1541 to 1408. Recent form leans Guadalajara Chivas, 55% against 35%. Attacking output favors Guadalajara Chivas on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 55%. Draw no bet leans Guadalajara Chivas at 64%; double chance reads Puebla or draw 55%, Guadalajara Chivas or draw 74%.
Puebla arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Cruz Azul, W 1-0 @ FC Juarez, W 4-3 @ Atlas, L 1-3 @ CF Pachuca.
Guadalajara Chivas are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Toluca, D 0-0 @ Correcaminos Uat, L 1-2 v Cruz Azul, D 2-2 @ Cruz Azul.
Guadalajara Chivas hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Guadalajara Chivas 5-0 Puebla.
The market prices PUE at 26% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
