Cruz Azul v Puebla

Cruz Azul meet Puebla in the Liga MX apertura - 2 at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. The model makes Cruz Azul the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 46% CRU, 29% draw, 26% PUE.

Cruz Azul rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1581 to 1408. Recent form leans Cruz Azul, 65% against 35%. Attacking output favors Cruz Azul on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 54%, over 2.5 goals around 62%. Draw no bet leans Cruz Azul at 64%; double chance reads Cruz Azul or draw 74%, Puebla or draw 54%.

Cruz Azul arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Puebla, W 3-2 @ Atletico San Luis, D 3-3 @ Monarcas, W 2-1 @ U.N.A.M. - Pumas.

Puebla are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Cruz Azul, W 1-0 @ FC Juarez, W 4-3 @ Atlas, L 1-3 @ CF Pachuca.

Cruz Azul hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cruz Azul 2-1 Puebla.

The market prices CRU at 70% implied. Our number sits apart on Puebla: a 13.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.