FC Juarez v Puebla

FC Juarez meet Puebla in the Liga MX apertura - 1 at Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez, Ciudad Juarez. The model makes FC Juarez the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% FC , 29% draw, 29% PUE.

The baseline ratings are close, 1504 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans FC Juarez, 50% against 35%. Attacking output favors FC Juarez on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 60%, over 2.5 goals around 63%. Draw no bet leans FC Juarez at 59%; double chance reads FC Juarez or draw 71%, Puebla or draw 58%.

FC Juarez arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Puebla, D 1-1 @ Colorado Rapids, W 3-1 @ Mineros de Zacatecas, D 2-2 v CA La Paz.

Puebla are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Cruz Azul, W 1-0 @ FC Juarez, W 4-3 @ Atlas, L 1-3 @ CF Pachuca.

The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FC Juarez 0-1 Puebla.

The market prices FC at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Puebla: a 9.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.