Where the market is wrong on HEBC v Borussia Dortmund
HEBC meet Borussia Dortmund in the DFB Pokal round of 64 at Volksparkstadion, Hamburg.
Borussia Dortmund rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1581 to 1443. Recent form leans Borussia Dortmund, 57% against 40%. Attacking output favors Borussia Dortmund on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans Borussia Dortmund at 60%; double chance reads HEBC or draw 58%, Borussia Dortmund or draw 71%.
HEBC arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Vorwärts-Wacker 04, W 3-2 @ ETSV Hamburg, L 0-1 v HT16, W 2-0 @ Concordia.
Borussia Dortmund are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Hamburger SV, L 1-2 v Bayern München, D 2-2 v AS Roma, W 3-2 @ Arsenal.
The market prices HEB at 2% implied. Our number sits apart on HEBC: a 26.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
