Alianza Valledupar v Fortaleza FC

Alianza Valledupar meet Fortaleza FC in the Primera A clausura - 1 at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar. The model makes Fortaleza FC the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 32% ALI, 32% draw, 36% FOR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 43%. Attacking output favors Fortaleza FC on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 36%. Draw no bet leans Fortaleza FC at 53%; double chance reads Alianza Valledupar or draw 64%, Fortaleza FC or draw 68%.

Alianza Valledupar arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Bucaramanga, L 0-1 @ Deportivo Cali, W 3-0 v Real Santander, D 1-1 @ Popayan.

Fortaleza FC are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Cucuta, D 1-1 v Orsomarso, L 0-1 @ Independiente Medellin, W 4-1 v Leones FC.

The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 3 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fortaleza FC 1-0 Alianza Valledupar.

The market prices ALI at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Fortaleza FC: a 10.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 78 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.