Where the market is wrong on Universitario v Cusco
Universitario meet Cusco in the Primera División clausura - 2 at Estadio Monumental, Lima. The model makes Universitario the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% UNI, 30% draw, 28% CUS.
The baseline ratings are close, 1516 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Universitario, 53% against 40%. Attacking output favors Universitario on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 48%. Draw no bet leans Universitario at 60%; double chance reads Universitario or draw 72%, Cusco or draw 58%.
Universitario arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Cusco, W 2-1 @ ADT, W 2-0 v Millonarios, D 1-1 v Atletico Grau.
Cusco are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Universitario, W 4-1 v Alianza Atletico, L 1-2 v Cienciano, L 3-4 @ Deportivo Binacional.
The market prices UNI at 65% implied. Our number sits apart on Cusco: a 14.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
