Where the market is wrong on Deportivo Garcilaso v FC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso meet FC Cajamarca in the Primera División clausura - 2 at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco. The model makes Deportivo Garcilaso the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% DEP, 31% draw, 29% FC .
Deportivo Garcilaso rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1523 to 1400. Recent form leans Deportivo Garcilaso, 53% against 35%. Attacking output favors Deportivo Garcilaso on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 46%. Draw no bet leans Deportivo Garcilaso at 58%; double chance reads Deportivo Garcilaso or draw 71%, FC Cajamarca or draw 60%.
Deportivo Garcilaso arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v FC Cajamarca, L 0-1 @ Sporting Cristal, D 0-0 @ UCV Moquegua, W 4-1 v Deportivo Binacional.
FC Cajamarca are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Deportivo Garcilaso, D 2-2 v Juan Pablo II College, L 1-3 @ UTC Cajamarca, D 1-1 v Deportivo Llacuabamba.
Deportivo Garcilaso hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Deportivo Garcilaso 2-1 FC Cajamarca.
The market prices DEP at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Cajamarca: a 10.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
