Tigre v Club Nacional

Tigre meet Club Nacional in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana round of 32. The model makes Club Nacional the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% TIG, 32% draw, 34% CLU.

The baseline ratings are close, 1408 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 48%. Attacking output favors Club Nacional on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 33%. Draw no bet leans Club Nacional at 50%; double chance reads Tigre or draw 66%, Club Nacional or draw 66%.

Tigre arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, W 3-0 @ Club Nacional, L 0-1 @ Independ. Rivadavia, W 2-0 v Alianza Atletico.

Club Nacional are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Tigre, L 1-2 v Wanderers, D 0-0 @ Danubio, W 2-1 v Juventud.

Tigre hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Club Nacional 0-3 Tigre.

The market prices TIG at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Club Nacional: a 7.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 69 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.