Where the market is wrong on Preston v Cambridge United
Preston meet Cambridge United in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies at Pinatar Arena, Murcia. The model makes Cambridge United the most likely outcome at 52%, with the full read 20% PRE, 28% draw, 52% CAM.
Cambridge United rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1589 to 1400. Recent form leans Cambridge United, 66% against 29%. Attacking output favors Cambridge United on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 31%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Cambridge United at 73%; double chance reads Preston or draw 48%, Cambridge United or draw 80%.
Preston arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Bradford, L 0-3 @ Marine, L 0-1 v Cambridge United, L 2-3 @ Sheffield Wednesday.
Cambridge United are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Northampton, W 1-0 @ Preston, W 2-1 @ Southend, W 3-1 @ Cambridge City.
The market prices PRE at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Cambridge United: a 27.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 86 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output