São Caetano v EC São Bernardo: the model read
São Caetano meet EC São Bernardo in the Copa Paulista group stage - 3. The model makes São Caetano the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% SÃO, 32% draw, 32% EC .
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 55%. Attacking output favors EC São Bernardo on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 35%. Draw no bet leans São Caetano at 52%; double chance reads São Caetano or draw 68%, EC São Bernardo or draw 64%.
São Caetano arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Santo André, L 1-2 v São José EC, D 2-2 v Penapolense, L 1-2 @ Penapolense.
EC São Bernardo are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ São José EC, W 3-1 v Santo André, L 0-2 @ Marília, W 2-0 v Marília.
São Caetano hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: São Caetano 1-1 EC São Bernardo.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
