Santo André v São Caetano

Santo André meet São Caetano in the Copa Paulista group stage - 2. The model makes São Caetano the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 24% SAN, 31% draw, 45% SÃO.

São Caetano rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1420. Recent form leans São Caetano, 63% against 38%. Attacking output favors São Caetano on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 34%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans São Caetano at 65%; double chance reads Santo André or draw 55%, São Caetano or draw 76%.

Santo André arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v São Caetano, L 1-3 @ EC São Bernardo, W 4-2 v Sao Bento, D 1-1 @ Linense.

São Caetano are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Santo André, L 1-2 v São José EC, D 2-2 v Penapolense, L 1-2 @ Penapolense.

São Caetano hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Santo André 0-0 São Caetano.

The market prices SAN at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on São Caetano: a 19.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.