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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Group Stage - 6 · World

Kenya v Guinea

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Kenya v Guinea: the model read

Kenya meet Guinea in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification group stage - 6.

The baseline ratings are close, 1573 to 1483, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Kenya, 60% against 50%. Attacking output favors Kenya on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.0 per match.

Kenya arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Lesotho, D 1-1 @ Lesotho, W 3-0 @ Grenada, D 1-1 v Estonia.

Guinea are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Northern Ireland, L 0-1 v Benin, D 2-2 v Togo, D 1-1 v Niger.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

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Kenya

LDWDW7-4-4

Scored 1.40 · Conceded 1.27 · Clean sheets 46.7% · BTTS 33.3%

  • WHLesotho4-0
  • DALesotho1-1
  • WAGrenada3-0
  • DHEstonia1-1
  • LASenegal0-8

Guinea

WDDLL5-8-5

Scored 1.00 · Conceded 0.94 · Clean sheets 33.3% · BTTS 44.4%

  • LANorthern Ireland0-1
  • LHBenin0-1
  • DHTogo2-2
  • DHNiger1-1
  • WHLiberia2-0

Managers

B. McCarthy

South Africa · 48

In charge since 2025 · 3 teams managed

  • Kenya2023–2026
  • AmaZulu2020–2022
  • Cape Town City2017–2019

Paulo Duarte

Portugal · 56

In charge since 2026 · 8 teams managed

  • Al Kholood2024–2024
  • Togo2021–2024
  • Burkina Faso2015–2019
  • CS Sfaxien2015–2015

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MeisterIQ, the four model inputs, model vs market and the edge

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.