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UEFA Nations League · 5 · World

Luxembourg v Estonia

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Luxembourg v Estonia: the model read

Luxembourg meet Estonia in the UEFA Nations League 5.

The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 30% against 35%. Attacking output favors Estonia on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.6 per match.

Luxembourg arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Albania, L 0-1 v Italy, W 3-0 v Malta, W 2-0 @ Malta.

Estonia are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Lithuania, W 1-0 v Faroe Islands, L 0-2 @ Rwanda, D 1-1 @ Kenya.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Luxembourg

LWWLW4-4-12

Scored 0.60 · Conceded 1.25 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 20%

  • WAAlbania1-0
  • LHItaly0-1
  • WHMalta3-0
  • WAMalta2-0
  • LANorthern Ireland0-1

Estonia

WDLWW5-4-11

Scored 0.90 · Conceded 1.75 · Clean sheets 20% · BTTS 45%

  • WHLithuania1-0
  • WHFaroe Islands1-0
  • LARwanda0-2
  • DAKenya1-1
  • WACyprus4-2

Managers

J. Strasser

Luxembourg · 51

In charge since 2025 · 6 teams managed

  • Progrès Niederkorn2022–2025
  • Jeunesse d'Esch2021–2022
  • Swift Hesperange2020–2020
  • Fola Esch2018–2020

J. Henn

Estonia · 38

In charge since 2024 · 3 teams managed

  • Flora2018–2023
  • Flora2016–2016
  • Flora II2014–2015
  • Flora II2011–2011

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.