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UEFA Nations League · 1 · World

Bulgaria v Luxembourg

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Bulgaria v Luxembourg: the model read

Bulgaria meet Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League 1.

The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 30%. Attacking output favors Bulgaria on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.6 per match.

Bulgaria arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 15 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Moldova, L 0-1 v Montenegro, W 1-0 @ Indonesia, W 10-2 @ Solomon Islands.

Luxembourg are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Albania, L 0-1 v Italy, W 3-0 v Malta, W 2-0 @ Malta.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Bulgaria

WWWLD5-5-10

Scored 1.15 · Conceded 2.00 · Clean sheets 25% · BTTS 40%

  • DAMoldova2-2
  • LHMontenegro0-1
  • WAIndonesia1-0
  • WASolomon Islands10-2
  • WHGeorgia2-1

Luxembourg

LWWLW4-4-12

Scored 0.60 · Conceded 1.25 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 20%

  • WAAlbania1-0
  • LHItaly0-1
  • WHMalta3-0
  • WAMalta2-0
  • LANorthern Ireland0-1

Managers

I. Iliev

Bulgaria · 57

In charge since 2023 · 8 teams managed

  • Cherno More Varna2018–2023
  • Vereya2017–2017
  • Altay VKO2017–2017
  • Lokomotiv Plovdiv2016–2016

J. Strasser

Luxembourg · 51

In charge since 2025 · 6 teams managed

  • Progrès Niederkorn2022–2025
  • Jeunesse d'Esch2021–2022
  • Swift Hesperange2020–2020
  • Fola Esch2018–2020

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.