Guijuelo v UD Santa Marta: the model read
Guijuelo meet UD Santa Marta in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 semi-finals. The model makes Guijuelo the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% GUI, 31% draw, 30% UD .
The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Guijuelo, 68% against 57%. Attacking output favors Guijuelo on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 47%. Draw no bet leans Guijuelo at 56%; double chance reads Guijuelo or draw 70%, UD Santa Marta or draw 61%.
Guijuelo arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Tamaraceite, W 2-1 v Tamaraceite, L 1-2 v Palencia CF, W 3-2 @ Palencia CF.
UD Santa Marta are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Guijuelo, D 1-1 v Guijuelo, D 1-1 @ Almazán, W 2-1 v Palencia CF.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
