UD Santa Marta v Guijuelo: the model read
UD Santa Marta meet Guijuelo in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 semi-finals. The model makes Guijuelo the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 30% UD , 31% draw, 39% GUI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1638, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Guijuelo, 68% against 57%. Attacking output favors Guijuelo on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 47%. Draw no bet leans Guijuelo at 56%; double chance reads UD Santa Marta or draw 61%, Guijuelo or draw 70%.
UD Santa Marta arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Guijuelo, D 1-1 v Guijuelo, D 1-1 @ Almazán, W 2-1 v Palencia CF.
Guijuelo are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Tamaraceite, W 2-1 v Tamaraceite, L 1-2 v Palencia CF, W 3-2 @ Palencia CF.
Guijuelo hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Guijuelo 2-0 UD Santa Marta.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
