Mensajero v Tamaraceite: the model read
Mensajero meet Tamaraceite in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 semi-finals. The model makes Mensajero the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% MEN, 32% draw, 34% TAM.
The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 70% against 65%. Attacking output favors Tamaraceite on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 33%. Draw no bet leans Mensajero at 50%; double chance reads Mensajero or draw 66%, Tamaraceite or draw 66%.
Mensajero arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 5 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Tamaraceite, L 0-2 @ Tamaraceite, W 1-0 v UD San Fernando, W 1-0 @ Arucas.
Tamaraceite are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Guijuelo, L 1-2 @ Guijuelo, D 1-1 @ San Fernando CD, W 3-0 v San Fernando CD.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
