América W v Toluca W: the model read
América W meet Toluca W in the Liga MX Femenil clausura - semi-finals at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. The model makes América W the most likely outcome at 49%, with the full read 49% AMÉ, 25% draw, 26% TOL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1719 to 1604, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans América W, 80% against 63%. Attacking output favors América W on expected goals, 2.7 to 2.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 84%, over 2.5 goals around 93%. Draw no bet leans América W at 65%; double chance reads América W or draw 74%, Toluca W or draw 51%.
América W arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 16 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 5-3 v Washington Spirit W, W 4-1 v NJ/NY Gotham FC W, W 3-0 v Monterrey W, L 0-1 @ Monterrey W.
Toluca W are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 3-4 @ América W, L 1-7 v América W, W 2-1 @ Tigres UANL W, W 2-1 v Tigres UANL W.
América W hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: América W 4-3 Toluca W.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
