Brisbane Roar FC W v Wellington Phoenix W: the model read
Brisbane Roar FC W meet Wellington Phoenix W in the A-League Women semi-finals at Spencer Park, Brisbane. The model makes Wellington Phoenix W the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 28% BRI, 28% draw, 44% WEL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 55%. Attacking output favors Wellington Phoenix W on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 68%, over 2.5 goals around 75%. Draw no bet leans Wellington Phoenix W at 61%; double chance reads Brisbane Roar FC W or draw 56%, Wellington Phoenix W or draw 72%.
Brisbane Roar FC W arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 12 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Wellington Phoenix W, W 2-1 v Wellington Phoenix W, W 3-0 v Adelaide United W, W 2-1 @ Canberra United W.
Wellington Phoenix W are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Melbourne City W, W 1-0 v Brisbane Roar FC W, L 1-2 @ Brisbane Roar FC W, W 2-0 @ Adelaide United W.
Wellington Phoenix W hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Wellington Phoenix W 1-0 Brisbane Roar FC W.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
