Maccabi Tel Aviv came from behind to win the State Cup final 2-1 over Hapoel Beer Sheva at Teddy Stadium, a result the Lemeister model had narrowly favoured. The model gave the eventual winners a 41 per cent chance compared with 32 per cent for Hapoel Beer Sheva and projected a 2-1 away win, which proved accurate.
Hapoel Beer Sheva struck first in the 12th minute. M. Abu Rumi scored with an assist from K. Kangwa, giving his side an early lead they held until the interval. That was the only goal of a first half in which the underdogs had their noses in front. The early goal set the tone, but Hapoel Beer Sheva could not extend their advantage. The cards began to accumulate in the first half as well. G. Mizrahi was booked in the 29th minute for Hapoel Beer Sheva, and S. Jehezkel of Maccabi Tel Aviv received a yellow in the 38th. The first half was close, but the statistics for the period are limited to what is known: the lead belonged to Hapoel Beer Sheva, but they could not build on it.
The match turned decisively in the second half. H. Varela levelled for Maccabi Tel Aviv in the 57th minute with an unassisted goal, drawing his team level. Seven minutes later, R. Revivo struck to put Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead, again with no assist recorded. Those two quick goals in a seven-minute spell flipped the contest completely. Hapoel Beer Sheva had been ahead for 45 minutes, but they could not respond after falling behind. The two goals were sufficient for Maccabi Tel Aviv to seize control.
Discipline became a major factor as the game wore on. Hapoel Beer Sheva received six cards in total. D. T. Diop was cautioned in the 90th minute and again in the 98th, which resulted in a red card. Lucas Ventura was also booked in the 100th minute. Maccabi Tel Aviv collected four yellow cards: S. Abu Farhi in the 69th minute, M. Camara in the 79th, and O. Melika in the 97th. The sending-off left Hapoel Beer Sheva a man down for the closing stages, compounding their difficulty in chasing the game. The discipline problems prevented any sustained pressure on the Maccabi Tel Aviv goal in the final minutes, as the numerical disadvantage made it difficult to create chances.
The goal timeline tells the story of the match. Hapoel Beer Sheva had a strong start with Abu Rumi's early goal, but they could not add a second. The defensive lapses that allowed Varela and Revivo to score proved fatal. The inability to respond after going behind, combined with the red card, underlined a performance that grew increasingly ragged as the match progressed. Maccabi Tel Aviv's composure after falling behind was the defining characteristic of their performance. They did not panic, equalised methodically, and then struck the decisive blow through Revivo.
For Hapoel Beer Sheva, this was a chance to claim silverware that slipped away after a strong start. The early goal had given them the platform, but the inability to add a second and the defensive lapses that allowed the two quick goals proved fatal. The red card compounded their difficulties, leaving them a man down for the final minutes and unable to mount a serious comeback. For Maccabi Tel Aviv, the cup is won, and the result reflects the narrow margins that decided the final. The Lemeister model's projection of a 2-1 away win was accurate, and Maccabi Tel Aviv delivered the performance required to lift the trophy.
