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US Open Cup · Round of 16 · USA

Houston Dynamo v Louisville City

2-1Full time· Shell Energy Stadium· Referee: M. De Oliveira

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Houston Dynamo v Louisville City: the model read

Houston Dynamo meet Louisville City in the US Open Cup round of 16 at Shell Energy Stadium, undefined. The model makes Houston Dynamo the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% HOU, 29% draw, 34% LOU.

The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 55%. Attacking output favors Houston Dynamo on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 69%, over 2.5 goals around 69%. Draw no bet leans Houston Dynamo at 51%; double chance reads Houston Dynamo or draw 66%, Louisville City or draw 63%.

Houston Dynamo arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Austin, D 1-1 v DC United, W 2-1 v America de Cali, W 3-0 v CD Olimpia.

Louisville City are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Trinidad and Tobago, L 1-3 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds, W 4-2 v Lexington, W 1-0 v Hartford Athletic.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Houston Dynamo

DWWDW11-3-6

Scored 1.70 · Conceded 1.40 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 50%

  • WHAustin3-0
  • DHDC United1-1
  • WHAmerica de Cali2-1
  • WHCD Olimpia3-0
  • DALos Angeles Galaxy1-1

Louisville City

DWWLW9-4-7

Scored 1.65 · Conceded 1.40 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 55%

  • WHTrinidad and Tobago1-0
  • LAPittsburgh Riverhounds1-3
  • WHLexington4-2
  • WHHartford Athletic1-0
  • DADetroit City0-0

Managers

Paulo Nagamura

Brazil · 42

In charge since 2022 · 2 clubs managed

  • Swope Park Rangers2018–2021
Away coach unavailable.

Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.