Chicago Fire v St. Louis City: the model read
Chicago Fire meet St. Louis City in the US Open Cup round of 16 at Soldier Field, undefined. The model makes Chicago Fire the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% CHI, 29% draw, 35% ST..
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 57%. Attacking output favors Chicago Fire on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 68%, over 2.5 goals around 67%. Draw no bet leans Chicago Fire at 50%; double chance reads Chicago Fire or draw 65%, St. Louis City or draw 64%.
Chicago Fire arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 10 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ New York City FC, L 2-3 @ Inter Miami, W 2-1 v Toronto FC, W 2-0 @ CF Montreal.
St. Louis City are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 12 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Colorado Rapids, W 3-1 @ Los Angeles Galaxy, W 3-2 v Sporting Kansas City, W 3-0 v Austin.
Chicago Fire hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Chicago Fire 1-2 St. Louis City.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
