Confiança v Gremio: the model read
Confiança meet Gremio in the Copa Do Brasil round of 32 at Estádio Lourival Baptista, Aracaju. The model makes Gremio the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 25% CON, 33% draw, 43% GRE.
Gremio rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1400. Recent form leans Gremio, 57% against 33%. Attacking output favors Gremio on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 29%. Draw no bet leans Gremio at 63%; double chance reads Confiança or draw 57%, Gremio or draw 75%.
Confiança arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v AO Itabaiana, L 0-2 @ Botafogo PB, L 1-2 v Barra, D 1-1 @ Ypiranga-RS.
Gremio are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Fluminense, L 2-3 @ Bolívar, L 1-2 @ Mirassol, W 3-1 v Cruzeiro.
Gremio hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Confiança 0-3 Gremio.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output