Boise v Sacramento Republic: the model read
Boise meet Sacramento Republic in the USL League One Cup group stage. The model makes Sacramento Republic the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 31% BOI, 30% draw, 39% SAC.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 60%. Attacking output favors Boise on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans Sacramento Republic at 56%; double chance reads Boise or draw 61%, Sacramento Republic or draw 69%.
Boise arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Greenville Triumph, W 2-1 @ NY Cosmos, W 2-1 v Portland Hearts of Pine, W 2-0 v Sacramento Republic.
Sacramento Republic are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Oakland Roots, D 1-1 @ Charleston Battery, L 0-2 @ Boise, W 2-1 v Rhode Island.
Boise hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Boise 2-0 Sacramento Republic.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
