Tocantinópolis v Capital: the model read
Tocantinópolis meet Capital in the Tocantinense semi-finals. The model makes Capital the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 34% TOC, 31% draw, 35% CAP.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 53%. Attacking output favors Tocantinópolis on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 46%. Draw no bet leans Capital at 51%; double chance reads Tocantinópolis or draw 65%, Capital or draw 66%.
Tocantinópolis arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 14 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 7-1 v Oratório, L 1-3 @ Águia de Marabá, L 1-4 @ Trem, W 2-0 v Imperatriz.
Capital are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Tocantinópolis, L 1-2 v Tocantinópolis, L 1-2 @ Tocantinópolis, D 1-1 v Manaus FC.
Tocantinópolis hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tocantinópolis 2-2 Capital.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
