New Caledonia v Jamaica: the model read
New Caledonia meet Jamaica in the World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs semi-finals at Estadio Akron, Zapopan. The model makes New Caledonia the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% NEW, 30% draw, 28% JAM.
The baseline ratings are close, 1666 to 1601, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans New Caledonia, 71% against 63%. Attacking output favors New Caledonia on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans New Caledonia at 60%; double chance reads New Caledonia or draw 72%, Jamaica or draw 58%.
New Caledonia arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Jamaica, W 2-0 @ Gibraltar, L 0-3 v New Zealand, W 3-0 v Tahiti.
Jamaica are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v South Africa, L 0-3 v Nigeria, W 2-0 v India, L 0-1 @ Congo DR.
Jamaica hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: New Caledonia 0-1 Jamaica.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output