Nacional U20 overturned the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model, which had installed Belgrano U20 as a 39% favourite, by winning 4-2 away from home in the CONMEBOL Libertadores U20. The scoreline was decided by a clinical first-half opener and a dominant second-half burst that left Belgrano chasing the game despite a spirited late rally. The model had projected a 2-1 home win for Belgrano, making this result a clear deviation from its pre-match read.
The visitors took the lead in the 35th minute through J. Dalmas, a goal that gave Nacional a platform to build on. The score remained 1-0 at half-time, and the second half began with a decisive moment. In the 50th minute, P. Nunez converted a penalty to double the advantage, and he struck again in the 65th minute, this time from open play with an assist from R. Garcia, making the score 3-0. At that point, the match felt well beyond Belgrano's reach, as Nacional had scored twice in the space of 15 minutes after the interval.
Belgrano, however, refused to wilt. T. Gaona pulled one back in the 79th minute to make it 3-1, briefly shifting the momentum. But any hope of a comeback was extinguished four minutes later when P. Nunez completed his hat-trick with a third goal in the 83rd minute, restoring the three-goal cushion. F. Mendieta scored a late consolation for Belgrano in the 90th minute, assisted by A. Caciorgna, but the final score of 4-2 accurately reflected Nacional's superiority across the key phases of the game.
The statistical picture, while incomplete without possession and shot data, points to a clear discrepancy in efficiency. Nacional scored four goals from their chances, while Belgrano managed only two despite pressing late. P. Nunez was the decisive figure, his hat-trick the difference between the sides. The performance was built on a period of sustained pressure in the second half, during which they scored twice in the space of 15 minutes to break the game open. Belgrano, by contrast, had the bulk of their attacking intent after the score had already been settled, with Gaona and Mendieta both scoring in the final 11 minutes when the contest was effectively over.
The disciplinary record tells a story of a match that became increasingly fractious as Belgrano chased the game. Five Belgrano players were booked: D. Tapia in the 27th minute, V. Corti in the 34th, M. Acosta in the 60th, A. Mendez in the 80th, and T. Gaona in the 95th. Nacional's sole caution went to M. Martinez in the 31st minute. This imbalance in yellow cards, along with the scoreline, suggests Belgrano's frustration grew as the contest slipped away, especially in the second half after the penalty. The late booking for Gaona, occurring after his goal, encapsulated a match where discipline eroded as the home side pushed for a result that never materialised.
The attacking contributions from Gaona and Mendieta, both scoring late, offer some encouragement for Belgrano, but the defensive lapses during Nacional's decisive spell were ultimately too damaging to overcome. The 4-2 loss leaves Belgrano with work to do in the group stage, as conceding four goals at this level is a significant setback. For Nacional, the victory maintains their push for progression, and the hat-trick from P. Nunez will be a key talking point. The Lemeister model had favoured the home side, but Nacional's clinical finishing and ability to strike at critical moments proved more decisive than the pre-match projections suggested.
